Since mid-June, the isooctanol market has entered a fast downward channel. After breaking through the bottom of the stage price of 12,100 yuan/ton, it continued to decline, setting new lows during this period. By July 12, the market price fell to 8,000-8,200 yuan/ton, which was already under the cost line of octanol. The upstream and downstream were full of grief. People couldn't help but ask, what happened to the isooctanol market? How long will this round of decline continue? With many questions, today we will discuss with you to find out.
Since the second quarter, the price of isooctanol has been fluctuating within the price range of 12,100 to 13,000 yuan/ton. Since June 14, the mainstream price of the market has broken through 12,100 yuan/ton and dropped to 11,800 yuan/ton. Then the market began to accelerate downward, and the downward trend of the market began to slow down in early July.
From the diagram, we can see more intuitively that the maintenance of the equipment was relatively concentrated in the second quarter, and the corresponding support for the market was strengthened. However, in late June, except for Jianlan, which was still under maintenance, other devices were restarted one after another, and the market supply pressure increased significantly. However, demand continued to remain sluggish. Therefore, it is not surprising that the market began to decline sharply in the early stage of supply recovery, even in mid-June.
| Industry | Average operating rate |
|---|---|
| DOP | 52% |
| DOTP | 55% |
| octyl acrylate | 51% |
| Other small varieties of octanol downstream | estimated at about 66,000 tons on average in previous years |
Preliminary statistics, the total market output in the second quarter of about 598,000 tons, net imports of about 32,000 tons, while the downstream demand-side DOP industry average operating rate of 52%, octanol consumption of 182,000 tons, DOTP industry average operating rate of 55%, octanol consumption of 286,000 tons, acrylate industry average operating rate of 51%, octanol consumption of 41,000 tons, other small species of octanol downstream total consumption according to the average level of previous years is estimated to be about 66,000 tons, so the second quarter market supply of about 630,000 tons, while the actual demand of about 575,000 tons, social inventory of nearly 55,000 tons, according to the second quarter average daily consumption of 6318 tons of octanol calculation, the existing inventory can maintain 8.7 days of consumption, the market oversupply situation is more prominent.
In addition to the above objective factors caused by the imbalance of supply and demand, the market downturn, this round of people's subjective judgment also played a certain crisis delay, resulting in the final concentrated outbreak of the role, in April Shandong Jianlan began to plan the long-term maintenance, coupled with other temporary repair exists, the market operating rate dropped to about 90%, in the past, the market will mostly have different degrees of rising market, so the downstream based on the judgment of good expectations, active procurement, reserve raw material inventory, and the actual market only shows the appearance of supply and demand balance, in June the market supply side again centralized maintenance, there are important equipment rotation news distribution market, people are optimistic about the judgment once again dominated, super raw material orders, high inventory of raw materials is widespread, and it is also the main reason for the emergence of the above 55,000 tons of social inventory. But in the end, in the face of the reality of sluggish demand, the bubble gradually dissipated, and the maintenance devices were restarted one after another, causing prices to fall rapidly.
From the recent price trend, we can see that the market has entered July, and the downward speed of prices has shown a slowing trend. Near the 8600-8800 yuan/ton point, due to the gradual leveling of the manufacturer's cost profit and loss line, everyone is more cautious about price adjustment. Although the fundamental supply and demand problem has not been solved, the price is still in the downward channel, but the willingness of octanol manufacturers to stop losses is further enhanced. The current price of isooctanol is 8,000-8200 yuan/ton, and the manufacturer has lost nearly 400-600 yuan/ton. It is expected that with the continued loss in the future, the production reduction and maintenance of supply-side devices will increase accordingly, and the market supply and demand side will return to balance, and the price will gradually stop falling and stabilize.
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